PROPAGATION: SCIENTISTS SAY SOLAR CYCLE HEADED INTO LIMBO
For years, astronomers and space scientists have been predicting the Sun would move into solar maximum by around 2012. During this period there would be many intense flares and lots of sunspot activity. Now they are thinking that the opposite may be happening:
According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, June 14th, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.
According to experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory, the signs of this include a missing jet stream, quickly fading spots, and slower activity near the poles.
Frank Hill is the Associate Director of the National Solar Observatory 's Solar Synoptic Network. At a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico Hill said that the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.
As every ham knows, solar activity tends to rise and fall in 11 year cycles. The solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.
According to Hill, the current cycle, number 24, may be the last normal one for some time but the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time. He adds that this is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change.
Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum. This was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when hardly any sunspots were observed. For ham radio such a prolonged solar minimum would mean very little in the way of High Frequency DX for a very long time. (This includes 11 Meter)
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